2014 Prediction League Discussion

I want to keep this place for discussion about all F1 Prediction League 2014 related things. To get us started, feel free to answer the following questions.

  1. What point system do you prefer? 
    1. The current system (Qualifying 8, Race 8, Constructors 6, Random 3)
    2.  A system where the importance of random is increased, either:
      1. Qualifying 7, Race 7, Constructors 6, Random 5
      2. Qualifying 6, Race 8, Constructors 6, Random 5
      3. Qualifying 7, Race 8, Constructors 6, Random 4
      4. Qualifying 8, Race 8, Constructors 5, Random 4 etc. 
    3. Other system
  2. What season categories would you like to see next year?
  3. How much involvement would you like in the creation of random categories?
  4. Are there any other improvements you'd like to see to the F1 prediction league? 

I'll give my own opinions for each of these questions too and will justify them. If anyone has any differing opinions, I definitely welcome them. I've always intended this F1 prediction league to be more of a community than a usual prediction league so I always welcome input.


In terms of season categories, I'm currently planning to keep similar ones. This year we had the following categories:
  • Predict the top three in the drivers and constructors championships
  • Predict the driver with the most season session points
  • Most and least retirements
  • Driver vs. Driver and Team vs. Team (a large amount of points)
  • Random Questions - will there be two or more drivers changes throughout the year? Will there be five podiums with only world champions on? Will there be a race with seven or more retirements? Will there be a race with zero retirements? Will there be five different winners? Will a rookie or a returning driver score a podium? Will there be three or more safety cars during the season?

I'm very happy with the first four bullet points. I'm happy to change the random questions. I'd like to add some rookie questions in perhaps depending on how the grid turns out. 

For randoms, this year they've been the joint effort of Michael, Joe and I to create. I'm happy to let everyone else contribute to creating randoms, there are various rules we play by which I can document but I'd like to know if people are interested in also creating random categories?

7 comments:

  1. Question 1 - Which points system do you prefer?

    I prefer either the current system 8, 8, 6, 3 or the changed system of 7, 7, 6, 5.

    My main reasonings for this are:
    - I think qualifying and race are equally important although I think qualifying is generally a bit easier to predict.
    - I feel constructors is a really important category as it's the most divisive category. I also enjoy thinking about how the number two drivers and specific cars will go around particular tracks. It takes the focus a bit away from the individual drivers.
    - We see far less differences in qualifying and race and perhaps lowering the difference between 1st and 2nd in those two categories will persuade people to take more risks.
    - random could have more significance. I feel it already has quite a lot already in some respects, at least for constructors points as when things get tight random is almost always the decisive factor.

    This will all depend on your opinions but personally I'd prefer not to lower constructors points or to make qualifying and race different in terms of points. Happy to see how other people feel on the matter though.

    In terms of the current structure we currently have (could change to under 7, 7, 6, 5 system):-

    Q - 8, 5, 3, 2, 1 (7, 5, 3, 2, 1)
    R - 8, 5, 3, 2, 1 (7, 5, 3, 2, 1)
    C - 6, 3, 1 (6, 3, 1)
    R - 3, 2, 1 (5, 4, 3, 2, 1 based on 5 for 1st; 4 for 2nd and 3rd; 3 for 4th and 5th, 2 for 6th and 7th and 1 for 8th, 9th and 10th).

    Question 2 - What season categories would you like to see next year?

    Mostly the same, I'd like to debate if there might be any other really good categories to add. The next two or three weeks are generally the time to get any sparkling ideas out there, although happy to make adjustments closer to the time if new exciting things arise.

    Question 3 - How much involvement would you like in the creation of random categories?

    I love creating randoms but happy to give other people opportunities with me acting as the go between to make sure the random is in a suitable format for use in a race weekend. Would need to get randoms sorted out, at the latest of, the sunday/monday the week of the race.

    Question 4 - Are there any other improvements you'd like to see within the F1 prediction league?

    I want to get other people's thoughts.

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  2. Q1) I kinda prefer the current points systemof the alternatives above. Quali and race are equally important, with the constructors perhaps less so. The random points are just that, some random lucky fruit to pick up along the way.

    But I'm trying to think of a way work in the current for-reals points system 25/18/15/12/10 etc. I realise a perfect picking round would give you 25 points but instead of awarded the total of your Quali/Race/Constructor/Random points per round you get 25 points for a win, 18 for second etc. Too much? Joe, Scott and Wander got 15/14/14 points in the first round in Australia so only one point advantage for a good win...

    Q2) One possible addition could be 3/2/1 points for picking Fastest Lap. You don't want too many points as it is fairly random and hard to pick at times (backmarker puts on some new tyres on the last lap to blast in a fast one etc)

    Q3) I loved the randoms, some were no brainers and some required great thought. Not that I did well from the random points, but it forced me to become more familiar with the rest of the field, not just the favourites. I don't have any off the top of my head, other than perhaps trying to work in some off-track questions. Needs more thought. Perhaps a (half) point for picking # of retirements per race.

    Q4) Can we invite new players for next year. I got a couple in mind who would have great fun and probably tip all the way through to the end.



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  3. 1) My preference is the current points system as the 3 years I have done the league it has always worked well. I am of the opinion that it if the majority of people want to change it then qualifying and race should have the greatest points values with constructors having less importance than qualifying and race. I am agreement with Scott that if the system is changed then it should be 7,7,6,5. In respect to Dead Jedi's thinking I don't mind people scoring the same number of points as season has waiting to your overall position. That and constructors is weighted by the real life points system.

    2) I personally think we should look at the rookies and see if we can decide on the best rookie perhaps giving weighting to their respective cars seeing as Kevin Magnussen is in a Mclaren. Perhaps a category with which driver will achieve the most doubles (Pole and Win) over the year? or driver with the most consistent qualifying (they consistently qualify and finish 4th) and race position

    3) I have always enjoyed random and felt it adds that certain special something and I will always as I have done contribute to it with my own ideas but I feel the category should involve others if they have a good idea.

    4) If it means we could have quicker results I am happy to work on data input for the final spreadsheet or assist you in the creation of macros to speed up creating the pivot tables for the final results. Ideally a full grid of 22 matching real F1 would be great if you could handle it Scott. Other than that I feel we don't need ridiculous things like double points in the last race.

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  4. Question 1 - Which points system do you prefer?

    I think that Q, R and C are roughly equally important. If there is one that we can call the most important category, it's definitely Race. I was pretty bad in Random throughout the year but I liked it anyway and it surely adds to the variety and fun of the game.

    I liked last year's points system, however I'd prefer a modified system. In my opinion Qualifying is too important with the current system. I'd prefer a system with less Q and more R maximal points. Here are my main reasons for this:

    - Q is much easier to predict. During the last season, the F1 Prediction League players scored 18% less Race points than Qualifying points despite the same 8/5/3/2/1 system for both Q and R. Precisely they scored 1294 Q (100%) and 1057 R (82%) points. Lowering the points for Q could at least equalize the realistically scoreable points for Q ans R.
    - Race is the most important category in my opinion.
    - The drivers and teams get points after their final race positon and not after their qualifying position. This sometimes leads to a modified/not real qualifying order as some tries a different tactics or tyre strategy like Webber in India last year.

    As for random, the maximal points value can be increased slightly, maybe from 3 to 4 points. I'm ok with 3 points, but 5 is a bit too much for a category which is just a lottery sometimes.

    Therefore my vote goes for a modified system with 7/8/6/4 (or 7/8/7/3 or even 6/8/7/4) points for Q/R/C/Random respectively. A seven points category's breakdown could be 7/4/2/1.

    Question 2 - What season categories would you like to see next year?

    Last year's categories are great, maybe you should include best driver/team during the 1st/2nd/3rd/4th quarter of the year or something like that.

    Question 3 - How much involvement would you like in the creation of random categories?

    If possible I'd be glad to help in creating one or two random categories druing the year.

    Question 4 - Are there any other improvements you'd like to see within the F1 prediction league?

    Midseason categories were great, you should keep it. :) Other than that it is very great as it is!

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  5. Hey! I've got a few comments.

    1) I'd want the following:
    - Random points to be 4 - I agree 5 is too much & 3 possibly too few. 4 points could be split (4 points - 1st, 3 points - 2nd & 3rd, 2 points - 4th-6th, 1 point - 7th-10th). Nice pyramid effect there!
    - Race to be the most points & constructors/qualifying to be roughly equally important.

    This could mean 7, 8, 6, 4 or 6, 9, 6, 4.

    2) Happy with everything!

    3) I'd like to play a part if a system's in place.

    4) I've really loved it so far!

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  6. Thanks everyone for your comments! Everyone seems to have different ideas of what the best system would be so I'll have a think about what the best way to decide would be.

    I'll wait to see if anyone comments in the coming months.

    DeadJedi, feel free to invite any of your friends. I plan to set a cap of 22 players (like the amount of F1 drivers) on the league given the time it takes to run and process everything!

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  7. I think random should be 4 points (1st-4 , 2nd-3 , 3rd-2 and 4th-1 point , i dont see much point if ten people scores points from random , it will not make any big effect on final score.
    I am happy with everything else.

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