Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Brazil 2014 (Round 18) - F1 Prediction League

Welcome to the Brazilian GP prediction league thread! A fantastic weekend is in store with storms looming, although the thought of rain unfortunately brings back memories of the Japan race.

Perhaps it is only fitting Marussia can wrap up the title here, needing only 18 more points than Lotus and 7 points more than McLaren. It’s difficult but not impossible, both Marussia drivers will undoubtedly be pushing hard to make it a reality!

The driver’s championship will go down to the final race, with Michael tight in the slipstream lining up an overtake and Sangan not far behind. Let’s make this one to remember. 

There’s plenty still to play for in the prediction league regardless of both championships including the glory of an individual race weekend win. There are a number of people throughout the field deserving of a win that haven’t quite had the luck. For example Nat who has so far scored 10 (out of 14) top 5 finishes but no victory...

Perhaps the storms will also provide one last non-Mercedes winner this season although the rain often exaggerates the gap from Mercedes to the rest of the field so I wouldn’t count it.

The random this time will be a mixture of driver groupings (think teammate domination style), Felipe Massa questions and tie-breaks.

Read on for the random and other information including team contracts, championship standings and a template to post picks.

Team situation for 2015

Following the announcements of various teams after the US GP, the team situation looks like this for next year (in championship order):

Marussia (administration, future uncertain)
Lotus – Sangan, Dragan
McLaren – Kim, Michael
Mercedes – Metalgatherer, Aled Lewis
Williams – no drivers confirmed yet
Red Bull – Kiszol, Ediglo
Ferrari – Joe, Chris
Sauber – Brian
Toro Rosso – no drivers confirmed yet
Force India – no drivers confirmed yet
Caterham (administration, future uncertain)

Championship Standings

Any way here’s a round-up of the current driver’s and constructor’s championship positions: 






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Random


Thanks to everyone who has helped so far on random this year - please feel free to post suggestions here for other races. 

Category 1: The Great Brazilian Drivers Market

Pick one driver from each of the four groupings below. Do not exceed a maximum budget of 50m EUR. For each unallocated 1m an extra two points will be scored.

Allocate which session (practice, qualifying, race, fastest lap) will be double points for every group (A-D)A session cannot be selected in more than one group e.g. race cannot be allocated twice. Your driver will then score double points in that session.

For example if I pick the below Massa will score double points in all practice sessions:
Group A - Massa (Practice)
Group B - Alonso (Race)
Group C - Hulkenberg (Fastest Lap)
Group D - Sutil (Qualifying)



Groupings


Scoring



Once points are tallied, players will be ranked in order and given points in 2 point increments. For example if there are 14 players, first will score 28 points, second 26 and last 0. If players are tied on points they will all receive the average of the points on offer. For example if three players tied for the lead (with 14 players) then all would receive 26 points (the average of 28, 26, 24).

Retirement rules:
  • If a driver retires through no fault of their own between 0-25% distance they get quarter points for where they were within the group (strategy adjusted).
  • if a driver retires through no fault of their own between 26-75% distance they get half points for where they were within the group (strategy adjusted).
  • If a driver retires through no fault of their own between 76-100% they get full points. So you could get Ricciardo retiring with 3 laps to go and gifting Massa with the lead of the group. Both Massa and Ricciardo would score maximum points.

Other rules:
  • if a driver is replaced in a practice session (e.g. Bottas in FP1, the next session they take part in is doubled for that driver so for FP2 Bottas’ points are doubled. Scoring occurs as normal for the other drivers in FP1 except Bottas’ replacement can affect their points total by beating them).

Category 2: The dominance of Massa?

Which session will Massa have the most advantageous position (based on position) relative to Bottas? (FP2, FP3, Qualifying, Race, Fastest Lap) – Nasr is thought to replace Bottas in FP1.
1st – 4 points
2nd – 3 points
3rd – 2 points
4th – 1 point
5th (and anyone who picks FP1 if Nasr takes Bottas’ place ;)) – 0 points

Ties (where there is an equal position - for example in FP2 and qualifying if Massa beats Bottas by +2 in both, the better pick will be the one with the greatest time difference. When comparing race to another session a multiple of 50 will be applied to all other sessions for example 0.2 in one session will equate to 10 seconds in the race). Additionally usual retirement rules count, placing will count at the time of a retirement/the lap before problems started occurring, unless a driver retires through fault of their own. If this is the case then rankings will be subject to FIA classification.

How many positions ahead (+) or behind (-) in Massa's best session relative to Bottas?
Correct – 4 points
1 away – 3 points
2 away – 2 points
3 away – 1 point
4 or more away – 0 points

Tie-break

How close will Massa and Bottas be in qualifying (last comparable session together)? 

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Template


Hamilton, Rosberg and Mercedes banned.

Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors: 
Random:

Group A: [Driver] (double points: [session])
Group B: [Driver] (double points: [session])
Group C: [Driver] (double points: [session])
Group D: [Driver] (double points: [session])
Session Massa best against Bottas: [FP2/FP3/Q/R/FL]
Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +/-X

Tie-break: X.XXX seconds

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As always picks are due before Free Practice 1 which is 1300 GMT/1000 Local time.

Good luck everyone!

21 comments:

  1. Cant pick the next few days so need to put the peddle to the metal! Again, win or bust. I rate the home favourite (Am I a Massacast?) and track should suit the Williams car, that really LOOOOOONNNNNNGGG straight helps a lot!

    Qualifying: Massa
    Race: Massa
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Group A: Massa (double points: race)
    Group B: Magnussen (double points: qualifying)
    Group C: Hulkenberg (double points: practice)
    Group D: Maldonado (double points: fastest lap)
    Total budget = 9 + 10 + 13 + 13 = 45 so under
    Session Massa best against Bottas: Fastest lap
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +3

    Tie-break: 0.211 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  2. Qualifying: RIC
    Race: RIC
    Constructors: RBR
    Random:
    Group A: [RIC] (double points: Race)
    Group B: [ALO] (double points: Quali)
    Group C: [KVY] (double points: Fastest Lap)
    Group D: [GUT] (double points: Practice)
    $48M in budget
    Session Massa best against Bottas: Q
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: -2

    Tie-break: 0.420 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  3. Qualifying: Vettel
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Group A: Vettel (double points: qualifying)
    Group B: Alonso (double points: race)
    Group C: Perez (double points: practice)
    Group D: Grosjean (double points: fastest lap)
    Total budget = 49m
    Session Massa best against Bottas: FP2
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: -1

    Tie-break: 0.179 seconds

    Rain = the domain of Alonso

    ReplyDelete
  4. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Group A: Bottas (double points: qualifying)
    Group B: Button (double points: practice)
    Group C: Vergne (double points: race)
    Group D: Maldonado (double points: fastest lap)
    Total budget = 49m
    Session Massa best against Bottas: qualifying
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: -1

    Tie-break: 0.311 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  5. I´m really honoured for being part of RedBull Racing next year, this is a result of my tenacity as driver and the potential showed over the last 2 years. Also i´m excited to be partner of Kiszol, who is a top competitive driver, so, we will rock F1 Fantay next year!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congrats! I wasn't strong enough but next year we'll see!

      Delete
    2. Welcome to Red Bull, ediglo! :)
      I'm sure our team will be a factor next year!

      Delete
  6. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: RedBull Racing
    Random:
    Group A: [Ricciardo] (double points: [FastestLap])
    Group B: [Magnussen] (double points: [Practice])
    Group C: [Kvyat] (double points: [Qualy])
    Group D: [Maldonado] (double points: [Race])
    Session Massa best against Bottas: [FP2]
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +2

    Tie-break: 0.125 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  7. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: RedBull Racing
    Random:
    Group A: [Ricciardo] (double points: [FastestLap])
    Group B: [Magnussen] (double points: [Practice])
    Group C: [Kvyat] (double points: [Qualy])
    Group D: [Maldonado] (double points: [Race])
    Total Budget: 47M$
    Session Massa best against Bottas: [FP2]
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +2

    ReplyDelete
  8. Gut? Crazy? The race will decide!

    Qualifying: Alonso
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: Ferrari
    Random:
    Group A: Bottas (double points: [Race])
    Group B: Alonso (double points: [Fastest Lap])
    Group C: Kvyat (double points: [Practice])
    Group D: Sutil (double points: [Qualifying])
    Total Budget: 49m$
    Session Massa best against Bottas: Fastest Lap
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +5

    ReplyDelete
  9. Qualifying: Massa
    Race: Massa
    Constructors: WIL
    Random:
    Group A: MAS (double points: RACE
    Group B: ALO] (double points: QUAL.
    Group C: HULK] (double points: FL
    Group D: SUT (double points: PRACTICE
    Session Massa best against Bottas: FP2
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +3

    Tie-break: 0.190

    ReplyDelete
  10. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Group A: [Bottas] (double points: [Race])
    Group B: [Alonso] (double points: [Qualifying])
    Group C: [Perez] (double points: [Fastest Lap])
    Group D: [Sutil] (double points: [Practice])
    Budget: 49M
    Session Massa best against Bottas: [FP3]
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: + 3

    Tie-break: 0.831 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  11. Qualifying - Bottas
    Race - Ricciardo
    Constructors - Williams
    Random -
    Group A, Bottas, Qualifying
    Group B, Alonso, Race
    Group C, Kvyat, Fastest Lap
    Group D, Gutierrez, Practice
    Massa's best session relative to Bottas: FP2
    Massa's best session position relative to Bottas: 2 Places ahead
    Tie-Break: 0.25s

    ReplyDelete
  12. Qualifying: Daniel 'The Beard' Ricciardo
    Race: Daniel 'Seb Beater' Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull Racing
    Random:
    Group A: Vettel (double points: Fastest Lap)
    Group B: Alonso (double points: Race)
    Group C: Vergne (double points: Qualifying)
    Group D: Sutil (double points: Practice)
    Budget: 49M
    Session Massa best against Bottas: FP2
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: -1

    Tie-break: 0.317 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  13. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Group A: [Massa] (double points: [Practice])
    Group B: [Alonso] (double points: [Race])
    Group C: [Perez] (double points: [Fastest Lap])
    Group D: [Grosjean] (double points: [Qualifying])
    Total budget: 48M
    Session Massa best against Bottas: [FP2]
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +4

    Tie-break: 0.175 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  14. Qualifying: Daniel Ricciardo
    Race: Daniel Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Group A: Daniel Ricciardo (double points: Race)
    Group B: Jenson Button (double points:Fastest Lap)
    Group C: Jean Eric Vergne (double points: Qualifying)
    Group D: Adrian Sutil (double points:Practice)
    Session Massa best against Bottas: FP2
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +1
    Budget:49M

    Tie-break: 0.185 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  15. Aled Lewis' picks:

    Qualifying: Vettel
    Race: Button
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Group A: Ricciardo (double points: Race)
    Group B: Button (double points: Practice)
    Group C: Vergne (double points: Qualifying)
    Group D: Sutil (double points: Fastest Lap)
    Session Massa best against Bottas: FP3
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +5

    Tie-break: 0.784s

    ReplyDelete
  16. On another note, this is crazy. We've so far had five predictions for race winner:

    Massa
    Ricciardo
    Alonso
    Bottas
    Button

    Seb could happen too. He'll be very good here in my opinion. I was tempted to go Seb - Seb - RBR.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Group A: Ricciardo (double points: Qualifying)
    Group B: Button (double points: Fastest Lap)
    Group C: Perez (double points: Race)
    Group D: Maldonado (double points: Practice)
    Session Massa best against Bottas: Race
    Positions ahead (+)/behind (-) in best session: +1

    Tie-break: 0.13s

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please change Group A to Fastest Lap and Group B to Qualifying :-)

      Delete
  18. Love the variety of people's picks! Difficult to call I feel anyway between RB/Williams and the rain makes things even more crazy. Feel that the forecast plays into Red Bull's hands though...

    Qualifying: Seb
    Race: Dan
    Constructors: RBR
    Random:
    Group A: [VET] (double points: qualifying)
    Group B: [ALO] (double points: race)
    Group C: [KVY] (double points: practice)
    Group D: [MAL] (double points: fastest lap)
    Session Massa best against Bottas: [FP2]
    Positions ahead (+)/ in best session: +4

    Tie-break: 0.22 seconds

    ReplyDelete