Monday, 21 July 2014

Hungary 2014 (Round 11) - F1 Prediction League



Note: Hamilton and Rosberg are banned as picks from all categories (except random where stipulated). I've created a poll in the right-hand corner of the site - vote whether you're are in favour of the ban. If not (and a majority post no), it won't go ahead. See the post further down for an explanation.

Welcome to the Lewisring! Or if you want the more formal and technical name – the Hungaroring, located in Mogyoród, Hungary. This has been the happy hunting ground for Lewis Hamilton in years gone by, winner in 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2013. Interestingly Kimi Räikkönen finished second in every single race where Hamilton won. I think if Hamilton is reliant on Kimi finishing second to win, he has little chance.

This race track is one which some of the best drivers love and have excelled at including Schumacher, Senna, Mansell and Alonso. The race has seen a lot of F1 history down the years including Hill’s crazy almost race winning effort in the…Arrows!? It has also seen the maiden wins of Button and Alonso in recent years.

There are a number of interesting questions this weekend. Can Williams hang on to the title of the second best car with its traction and recent success? Can Hamilton and Räikkönen repeat earlier successes? Can another German finally win here after the previous dominance of Schumacher – Vettel would break his Hungary duct and Rosberg would strengthen his position in the championship.

Without further ado let’s introduce the championship standings:





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Random


Thanks to everyone who has helped so far on random this year - please feel free to post suggestions here for other races.

Random will be split into two categories - most team improvement and random questions.

Who is catching the Kraken?



Which team has made the most qualifying progress since Catalunya, Spain? 

This is an ideal track to choose as Hungary is (one of) the closest comparisons on the F1 circuit to Catalunya so progress can be fairly accurately measured.

The fastest time from the Spanish GP qualifying 2014 has been taken for each constructor. This time has been represented as a % of the Mercedes car (see below).

Mercedes 100%
Red Bull 101.23%
Williams 101.64%
Lotus 102.03% 
Ferrari 102.20%
McLaren 102.47%
Force India 102.88%
Toro Rosso 103.29%
Sauber 103.58%
Marussia 105.11%
Caterham 105.96% 

Choose the TWO teams you feel have made the most progress since Round 5 – Spain. And the team who has made the LEAST progress.

Mechanics 

The best time from Hungary 2014 qualifying for each constructor will be divided by the % to give a new ordering.

For example, using last year’s times from Hungary the following would happen:

Mercedes 79.388/1 = 79.388
Red Bull 79.426/1.0123 = 78.461
Ferrari 1.19.791/1.0220 = 78.073
Williams 1.21.133/1.0164 = 79.824
Order: Ferrari (78.073), Red Bull (78.461), Mercedes (79.388), Williams (79.824).

Scoring
As there are eleven teams there is an opportunity to score 21 points – 11 points for the best choice and 10 points for the second best choice, 9 for third etc. An additional two bonus points will be scored for correctly guessing the team which has declined the most since Spain 2014. 

Who’s the most hungry?


Q1: Massa will finish in the top five in the race? (Yes/No)
Q2: Kobayashi will beat Chilton in the race? (Yes/No)
Q3: Rosberg will beat Hamilton in the race? (Yes/No)
Q4: Hulkenberg will reach Q3? (Yes/No)
Q5: A Lotus car will finish in the points? (Yes/No)
Q6: Mercedes will finish one-two in every session which includes P1, P2, P3, Qualifying and Race? (Yes/No)
Q7: Both Ferraris will score points? (Yes/No)

Two points will be scored for each correct answer answered above.

Tie-break 

What is the time difference in qualifying between Sergio Perez (car no.11) and Pastor Maldonado (car no.13)? (best times in whole session).

A random generator listed numbers between 1 and 99.  I took the driver numbers; It took a while to find the two drivers but we got there in the end.

Reasons for banning Hamilton and Rosberg


I think there are a few reasons for this. Anyone who has any issues with this please vote no in the poll (top-right corner of the site). My reasonings are as follows:

  • Rosberg and Hamilton are both 70 points + ahead of the nearest competitors in the Drivers Championship
  • The majority of picks have been Rosberg and Hamilton this year with very few exceptions so banning them should increase the diversity of picks made. There are several options open with Bottas, Ricciardo, Vettel, Alonso, Massa etc. Even the McLarens, Kimi, the Lotus' and Force India may be viable picks given a bit of development and unique circumstances.
  • Three of the last four races have been decided by mechanical issues which I find dissatisfying regardless of the outcome (Canada - Hamilton retires, Britain - Rosberg retires and Germany - Hamilton has a huge brake failure which ruled out any Q points and made the race a foregone conclusion). It's true that the same problem can occur if you choose other drivers but increasingly with the hot summer the Mercs will continue to run into problems
  • The Merc trend will continue throughout the whole year as their car is significantly better than the others making other drivers implausible choices

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Template


Please pick with and without Hamilton and Rosberg in case the ban doesn't go ahead.

Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors: [Not Mercedes as they are banned]
Random:

Teams with most improvement: X, Y
Team with least improvement: X
Q1: Yes/No
Q2: Yes/No
Q3: Yes/No
Q4: Yes/No
Q5: Yes/No
Q6: Yes/No
Q7: Yes/No

Tie-break
Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez:

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I'm looking forward to this weekend. As always picks are due before Free Practice 1. Will Hamilton become a five-time winner?

19 comments:

  1. Please pick with and without Hamilton and Rosberg in case the ban doesn't go ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Qualifying: RIC
    Race: RIC
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: STR, McLaren
    Team with least improvement: Sauber
    Q1: Yes
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: No
    Q5: Yes
    Q6: No

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 1.00000s

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Brian, thanks for the picks. I missed out Q7 in the template so there's an additional question to answer.

      Delete
  3. Also for those for/against the ban, you can post your reasons down here to encourage people to vote your way.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 1) Ban - I think its more boring when the Mercedes are picks. They're the best two cars by a huge distance. I want to have more realistic options so 100% for the ban.

    2) Picks

    Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Williams, Force India
    Team with least improvement: Mercedes
    Q1: Yes
    Q2: No
    Q3: Yes
    Q4: Yes
    Q5: Yes
    Q6: No
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 1.321s

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Will check back but ban 7-2 up atm so no HAMROS picks!

      Delete
  5. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Vettel
    Constructors: RedBull Racing
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Force India, Lotus
    Team with least improvement: Mercedes
    Q1: No
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: Yes
    Q5: Yes
    Q6: No
    Q7: Yes

    ReplyDelete
  6. I voted yes.

    Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Marussia, Lotus
    Team with least improvement: Caterham
    Q1: No
    Q2: No
    Q3: No
    Q4: No
    Q5: No
    Q6: No
    Q7: Yes

    ReplyDelete
  7. Qualifying: Massa
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Williams, Mercedes
    Team with least improvement: Caterham
    Q1: Yes
    Q2: No
    Q3: Yes
    Q4: No
    Q5: Yes
    Q6: No
    Q7: No

    ReplyDelete
  8. Aled Lewis' picks:

    Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Vettel
    Constructors: Ferrari
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Red Bull, Toro Rosso
    Team with least improvement: Sauber
    Q1: No
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: No
    Q5: Yes
    Q6: Yes
    Q7: Yes
    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 1.00000s

    ReplyDelete
  9. I voted yes.

    Qualifying: BOT
    Race: BOT
    Constructors: WIL
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: FI , STR
    Team with least improvement: LOTUS
    Q1: Yes
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: No
    Q5: No
    Q6: No
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez:

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tie-break
      Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 0.450

      Delete
  10. Voted yes and my picks are

    Qualifying: Valtteri Bottas
    Race: Daniel Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Force India, Mclaren
    Team with least improvement: Sauber
    Q1: No
    Q2: No
    Q3: No
    Q4: Yes
    Q5: No
    Q6: Yes
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 0.650

    ReplyDelete
  11. Qualifying: Valtteri Bottas
    Race: Daniel Ricciardo
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: McLaren, Toro Rosso
    Team with least improvement: Lotus
    Q1: Yes
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: Yes
    Q4: Yes
    Q5: Yes
    Q6: Yes
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 0.8 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  12. Joe's picks:

    Qualifying - Hamilton/Bottas
    Race - Rosberg/Ricciardo
    Constructors - Red Bull
    Most 1 - Force India
    Most 2 - McLaren
    Least - Lotus
    Q1 - Y
    Q2 - Y
    Q3 - Y
    Q4 - Y
    Q5 - N
    Q6 - N
    Q7 - Y (a 1-2 would be nice...)
    Tie-break - 0.95s

    ReplyDelete
  13. Qualifying: Massa
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: WIL, MCL
    Team with least improvement: CAT
    Q1: Yes
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: Yes
    Q5: No
    Q6: No
    Q7: No

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 1.475s

    ReplyDelete
  14. My picks:

    Qualifying: Daniel Ricciardo
    Race: Daniel Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Toro Rosso, Ferrari
    Team with least improvement: Lotus
    Q1: No
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: No
    Q5: No
    Q6: No
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 1.113 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  15. Qualifying: RIC
    Race: RIC
    Constructors: RBR
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: Force India, McLaren
    Team with least improvement: Sauber
    Q1: No
    Q2: No
    Q3: No
    Q4: Yes
    Q5: No
    Q6: Yes
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: 0.649s

    ReplyDelete
  16. Just remembered this before I went to bed...

    Voted yes for the ban.

    Qualifying: RIC/HAM
    Race: RIC/HAM
    Constructors: RBR
    Random:
    Teams with most improvement: McLaren, Toro Rosso
    Team with least improvement: Mercedes
    Q1: No
    Q2: Yes
    Q3: No
    Q4: No
    Q5: No
    Q6: No
    Q7: Yes

    Tie-break
    Time difference in qualifying between Maldonado and Perez: Uno secondo exactomondo (one second)

    ReplyDelete