Sunday, 1 December 2013

F1 Prediction League - Awards 2013

And the winner of the £30 Amazon voucher is...Kim! It was a close run thing with Kiszol only one point behind and Michael only three points behind. All I can say is well done to Kim on a fantastic season!

Thanks to everyone for playing this year! It's been a lot of fun and I hope you come back for 2014.


2014 Discussion


Please have a look at this page (on the tab at the top of the site) - I decided against posting a survey as I would love for people to have a discussion about the changes we should make to the league next year, so please free to comment!

2013 Statistics


Also please see the following threads for 2013 stats and individual player stats

Awards


Moving onto the awards, which cover the ten categories announced earlier as well as a few more. Everyone has excelled in one way or another and I wanted to acknowlege it here. First I need to thank Michael for his help in defining the criteria behind the awards - this helped to make sure the whole process was as objective as possible. 

Best Qualifying Pick


1st Rajaram (Rosberg at Brazil)
An inspired pick which allowed Rajaram to become the best qualifying picker of the season (jumping clear from Michael and Kim onto 113 points). Few guessed that Mercedes would have a chance to outqualify the peerless Red Bull. Perhaps it was the threat of rain which prompted the pick, perhaps there was some other insight. Regardless the stakes were high especially with third up for grabs in the championship and although third wasn't achieved, the pick still paid off as Rajaram defended fourth place.


2nd Kiszol (Hamilton at China)
Kiszol was one of the first to take a risk on Hamilton early on in the season with the vast majority picking Vettel for China (after Australia and Malaysia). The beauty of this pick was Hamilton's former superiority in China was overlooked by others while the 0.3 second margin of victory made this pick even more satisfying.


3rd Ediglo (Webber at Japan)
Ediglo was the only player to pick Webber for Japan, with everybody else sticking with Vettel. This pick turned out well after KERS problems for Vettel, which led to Webber outqualifying his teammate for the first time in the season. This race did spell the start of a succession of races where Webber challenged Vettel for pole so perhaps this was a bit prophetic.


Monday, 25 November 2013

Final Championship Standings 2013 and Brazil Results

So here it is - the end of the 2013 season. It's been a lot of fun running the league, I hope you feel the same way about playing it. There's been some stand-out picks throughout the season, which I've really enjoyed seeing, and I'm happy we agreed to ban Vettel. It improved the league immeasurably towards the end.

I'm planning on releasing an awards thread next weekend (check back Sunday PM), where the winner of the £30 amazon voucher will be announced. However congratulations to Kim who won the 2013 Vettel mini-champs car for finishing 1st/2nd in the Drivers Championship.

I'm also in the process of creating a survey, where you can comment on the F1 prediction league in general and areas for improvement. I'll post that link, as well as fully completed statistics for the 2013 season, when the awards thread is posted.

Any way on to the real stuff, Kiszol has won their third race of the season - meaning Sauber now have six wins and a 109 point lead in the constructors championship. It's been incredible from my perspective to work with Kiszol and I wish them well with their Red Bull drive.

For other teams it's been very intense between 2nd and 5th place. McLaren just edged the battle, scoring 92 points in the last four races. It was a shame for the Lotus team, as both players have picked fantastically all year. However congratulations to both McLaren drivers. As both teams remain the same in 2014, they can have a have a rematch!

So here are the final standings:
  


Constructors Championship

 
For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Kiszol will score 25 points for their 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).

 


The podium was as follows (see post for further results)  
 

Saturday, 23 November 2013

Round-up of Brazil picks 2013 (Season Finale)

 
 Here is a round-up of picks:
 
 The most common picks were clearly Webber, Webber, Mercedes this week.
 

Qualifying

 


Read on for race, constructors and random splits.

Monday, 18 November 2013

Brazil - F1 Prediction League (Season Finale - Round 19)

It's time for the season finale! It all comes down to this. Brazil always produces exciting races so we can expect even more from the battles throughout the field - the battle for third, for sixth, for tenth. There's even great battles in the constructors with Lotus and McLaren only separated by 1 point fighting for second.

The great thing is that we have a mammoth random category and no Vettel picks for qualifying! This is definitely the most open weekend in terms of picks in a long time.

Good luck to all. Let's fight to see who gets the final victory of the season.

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:






End of Season Awards
There are a number of awards to give out at the end of the season (top three for each category):
  1. Best qualifying pick
  2. Best race pick
  3. Best constructors pick
  4. Best random pick
  5. 'Mark Webber' award (to the most unlucky player throughout the season)
  6. The Conservative award (to the player who posted the most picked qualifying, race or constructors pick the most times)
  7. The Originality award (to the player who posted the most picked qualifying, race or constructors pick the least times)
  8. Multi 21 (to the player who finished one place above their teammate in the most events)
  9. The 'Hulk Smash' award (awarded to the player who beat their teammate the most convincingly during the season)
  10. No. 1 fan award (awarded to the player who picked a driver more times than anyone else e.g. if a player picked Chilton 10 times more than anyone else they'd likely win)

For a full guide to the 2013 season including stats and other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: F1 Prediction League 2013

It's finally great to get all active players set up in their teams for next year.
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Random Category for Brazil (The Brazilian Bolt)



Which player will complete Interlagos in the quickest time? (based on five different categories).


The idea is to break the circuit into five different sectors, each with a question/category:

Sector 1 (Senna S, Curva do Sol and Reta Oposta) - best time = 17.8 seconds
Turns 4, 5 and 6 (Descida do Lago and Ferradura) - best time = 11.5 seconds
Turns 7, 8 and 9 (Curvo do Laranjinha and Pinheirinho) - best time = 14.2 seconds
Turns 10, 11 and 12 (Bico de Pato, Mergulho and Juncao) - best time = 13.7 seconds
Turns 13, 14 and 15 (Subida dos Boxes and Arquibancadas) - best time = 13.8 seconds
Theoretical best time = 71 seconds

You'll lose time depending on how far your picks are away from the ideal picks.
 
Sector 1 - Which driver will be the quickest in qualifying with the following handicaps applied:-

Vettel
Grosjean -0.6 seconds
Rosberg -0.65 seconds
Hulkenberg -0.85 seconds
Alonso -0.85 seconds
Perez -1.00 seconds
Ricciardo -1.20 seconds
Bottas -1.25 seconds
Di Resta - 1.3 seconds
Van der Garde - 2.45 seconds
Chilton -3.15 seconds

Your time will depend on how far your driver is behind the overall best pick. For example, if Vettel is the best pick and you picked Chilton who was 3.95 seconds behind (and has a 3.15 seconds handicap) you'd score 17.8 seconds (the best possible time) + 0.8 seconds = 18.6 seconds.

Turns 4-6 - Which teammates will be the closest in time adding their difference in both FP2 and FP3?

If Button and Perez are split by 0.03 seconds in FP2 and 0.31 seconds in FP3 then you'd add the totals to get 0.34 seconds. 

As above, the best pick will score you 11.5 seconds. Each additional place down will add an extra 0.06 seconds to your time.

Turns 7-9 - Which driver will finish the most positions above their teammate in the race?

This is a simple category, tie-breaks will be decided on the position of the lead driver, the closer to the lead, the better.

Anyone who picks a driver whose teammate retires or if they retire will automatically score an average time. For each position away from the ideal pick a further 0.065 seconds will be added to the time.

Turns 10-12 - Which team will gain the most combined positions from their grid position in the race?

Tie-breaks will be decided on the position of the lead driver, the closer to the lead, the better. Retirements will be classed as 0 gain, 0 loss. Each position away from the ideal pick will add an additional 0.07 seconds onto your time.

Turns 13-15 - Which team will have the greatest combined speed trap reading in qualifying?

Every place away from the ideal pick adds 0.05 seconds onto your time.






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I know the random is a bit crazy but I wanted to do something more grand for the finale especially with so many close battles throughout the field. If you hate it feel free to respond and I'll never do it again!

The scoring system works as follows:
Best picker: 3 points
2nd and 3rd: 2 points
4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note 1: if there is an overall tie on weekend points and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on actual random scores.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Reminder: No Vettel qualifying or race picks and no Red Bull constructors picks. This is a Vettel free zone.


Post your picks in the following format -

Qualifying: 
Race:
Constructors:
Random:-
S1:
T4-6:
T7-9:
T10-12:
T13-15:


The deadline for Brazil picks is Friday 22nd November 12:00 GMT (before FP1). 

Good luck and may the best picker win! If anyone's worried about block picking, please email me with your picks here. Then I can post your picks during FP1 when possible. Same rules apply as usual, after you've made your picks you'll have a very small window to correct (1 hour) and then they're set in stone.

Sunday, 17 November 2013

US Results and Championship Standings (18/19)

Sauber have been crowned constructors champions with an 87 point lead over Lotus! 

Congratulations to Kiszol on a great joint team effort.

The battle for second in the constructors championship has never been more hotly contested with only one point separating Lotus and McLaren with Ferrari only 20 points back. Anything could happen in Brazil especially with the unpredictable weather. 

Well done to MetalGatherer, who earned their fourth podium in eight races, and Michael whose consistency has finally paid off.  There's a lot of exciting (team) battles throughout the field - particularly between the Lotus drivers both on 265 points and the Mercedes drivers only separated by 1 point.

I'm highly anticipating Brazil where everything will be decided. Also shortly following will be a season awards thread and news about who has won the mini-champs car and £30 amazon voucher.


Here are the current standings:
  


Constructors Championship
 
For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, MetalGatherer will score 18 points for their 2nd place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).



The podium was as follows (see post for further results)


Saturday, 16 November 2013

Round-up of US picks 2013

See the US picking thread: (http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/united-states-f1-prediction-league.html) 

Here is a round-up of picks:

The most common picks were clearly Vettel, Webber, Mercedes this week.

Qualifying

 


Read on for race, constructors and random splits.

Tuesday, 12 November 2013

United States - F1 Prediction League (Round 18)

The US GP last year produced a thrilling battle for the lead, one which we haven't seen for a while now - not since Germany or Hungary. Let's hope for a great race and a repeat of that situation!

The drivers championship is really close going into the final two rounds of the season, only three points difference which is nothing. I'm expecting a few more twists and turns to this one.


To keep their championship hopes alive Lotus need to outscore Sauber by 16 points otherwise a constructor will be crowned champions for the first time, in America.

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:




For a full guide to the 2013 season including stats and other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: F1 Prediction League 2013

Also see the Driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc. There are currently offers for Jasper94, Michael and Keba. Please don't be afraid to request a team if you're interested or to make specific demands if you feel you're worth it!

Update on Red Bull #2 contract situation:

The situation is fairly simple, Michael has to outscore Keba by at least 17 points (unless MetalGatherer wins the weekend). Otherwise Keba secures the Red Bull #2 contract. 
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Random Category for US (The US Casino)


Where will each constructors team finish in the race relative to their current constructors championship position?
For all eleven teams, you'll need to pick whether they'll finish higher, lower or the same compared to their current constructors position.
Finishing position for a constructor in the race is based on points scored and then on highest position finished therefore if a team which had 0 points finished 11th they would be the best of all the non-point scorers etc.
If you pick higher: you'll score 2 points for higher, 1 point for same and 0 points for lower.
If you pick the same, you'll score 1 point for higher, 2 points for the same and 1 point for lower
If you pick lower, you'll score 0 points for higher, 1 point for same and 2 points for lower.
The above is to compensate for the fact that finishing in the same position is a range of 1 whereas higher or lower are far broader.

At the end of the category total scores will be added and compared against other players, tie-breaks are decided by the player who scores the most 2 point hauls, then 1 point, then 0 points. If no decision can be made, it will revert to who picked first.

The scoring system works as follows:
Best picker: 3 points
2nd and 3rd: 2 points
4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note 1: if there is an overall tie on weekend points and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on actual random scores.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Reminder: No Vettel race picks and no Red Bull constructors picks.

Post your picks in the following format -

Qualifying: 
Race:
Constructors:
Random:-

Red Bull 1st - Higher/Lower/Same
Mercedes 2nd -
Ferrari 3rd -
Lotus 4th -
McLaren 5th -
Force India 6th -
Sauber 7th -
Toro Rosso 8th -
Williams 9th -
Marussia 10th -
Caterham 11th -

The deadline for US picks is Friday 15th November 15:00 GMT (before FP1). 

Good luck and may the best picker win! If anyone's worried about block picking, please email me with your picks here. Then I can post your picks during FP1 when possible. Same rules apply as usual, after you've made your picks you'll have a very small window to correct (1 hour) and then they're set in stone.

I'll always attempt to pick fairly early, given my position in the championship always good to avoid any suspicions!

Monday, 4 November 2013

Abu Dhabi Results and Championship Standings (17/19)

Congratulations to Kim on an amazing weekend, the Mercedes pick mixed with Webber and a random point was a recipe for success. The gap to the lead has now shrunk noticeably to only three points so there's very little in it for the championship, it's going to be an edgy end to the season!

The battle for fourth to ninth is definitely still in full flow - Rajaram has taken the initiative and pulled out a six point gap but that could easily change with three drivers within 10 points.

In the constructors championship, McLaren made a significant movement into third position due to two excellent points finishing positions. Sauber have lost some of their lead in the battle for first but a 58 point lead means only a crazy end to the year could deny them the championship - Lotus will have to go all out to score 43 points out of 43 points next race!   


Here are the current standings:
  


Constructors Championship
For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Kim will score 25 points for their 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).



The podium was as follows (see post for further results)



Sunday, 3 November 2013

Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Abu Dhabi - F1 Prediction League (Round 17)

There you go, the title is won but is it all over? We still have the battle for second in the drivers and constructors championship - if you can look past the fact that few will remember who secured 2nd in 30 years time then there is still a lot left to look forward to this season. The battles down the field have been exciting, just a shame that there is such a strong, consistent winner.

Only one player scored any race points in India - with luck befalling all of the main picked drivers, especially Mark Webber. Well done Rajaram, Grosjean performed excellently.

Three races left means the constructors championship can be wrapped up in Abu Dhabi if Sauber outscore Lotus by 17 points. Overall there is still plenty to be play for, with FIA bonuses going to the top five in the Drivers Championship and the top three in the Constructors Championship.

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:



For a full guide to the 2013 season including stats and other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: F1 Prediction League 2013

Also see the Driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc. There are currently offers for Jasper94, MetalGatherer, Michael and Keba. Please don't be afraid to request a team if you're interested or to make specific demands if you feel you're worth it!

Update on Red Bull #2 contract situation:



The driver with the most conditions fulfilled has the first choice on the #2 contract.
 
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Random Category for Abu Dhabi (The Abu Dhabi Desert Difference)


Which teammates will have the closest qualifying and fastest lap times and which teammates will have the furthest apart?

You can only pick one team/two teammates for closest and furthest apart e.g. closest - Force India, furthest apart - Ferrari. Therefore you'll need to consider how to score the maximum points picking one team for both qualifying and fastest lap.

For both qualifying and fastest lap, points will be scored in line with F1 scores (see below): 

Closest teammates:
Qualifying - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0
Fastest lap - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0

Furthest apart teammates:
Qualifying - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0
Fastest lap - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0

This means that the teammates who are closest or furthest away based on time alone will score 25 points, 2nd closest/furthest 18 points etc.

The total score across the four different categories will be added together to get an overall score and compared against other players.

The scoring system works as follows:

Best picker: 3 points
2nd and 3rd: 2 points
4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Ties will be dealt with on a countback method (most 25 points, most 18 points). If there is no way to distinguish, time of posting will be used.

Note 1: Retired drivers will not be counted in fastest lap (will score you 0 points), therefore it is not beneficial to select a driver who is highly likely to retire and have a huge fastest lap difference to their teammate.


Note 2: if there is an overall tie on weekend points and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on actual random scores (i.e. the total score across all four categories).

--------------------------------------------------------------
Reminder: No Vettel race picks and no Red Bull constructors picks. Unfortunately Vettel is still allowed as a qualifying pick given the rules set down before Japan - see comments in the India race thread.

Post your picks in the following format -

Qualifying:
Race:
Constructors:
Random:-

Team 1 [Closest]
Team 2 [Furthest apart]

The deadline for Abu Dhabi picks is Friday 1st November 09:00 GMT (before FP1). 

Good luck and may the best picker win! If anyone's worried about block picking, please email me with your picks here. Then I can post your picks during FP1 when possible. Same rules apply as usual, after you've made your picks you'll have a very small window to correct (1 hour) and then they're set in stone.

I'll always attempt to pick fairly early, given my position in the championship always good to avoid any suspicions!

Monday, 28 October 2013

India Results and Championship Standings (16/19)

Congratulations to Rajaram on an excellent win - an inspired Grosjean pick sealed the deal for the weekend! Unlucky for Webber pickers, Webber was clearly the best pick so people who picked him can feel hard done by.

The championship is looking much the same as before with the majority of players scoring 11 to 14. In the next race, if Sauber score 17 more points than Lotus in the constructors championship it will be over, which will delight Peter Sauber no end.

The battle for the second Red Bull seat heats up with Keba taking the initiative, well done.

Here are the current standings:



Constructors Championship

For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Rajaram will score 25 points for his 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).



The podium was as follows (see post for further results)


Tuesday, 22 October 2013

India - F1 Prediction League (Round 16)

The title wasn't wrapped up in Japan, as expected, however it's definitely a matter of time. Realistically only a Vettel retirement will stop the crowning of F1's youngest four-time world champion. Few would bet against Vettel achieving a tame fifth place, especially as all fourteen finishes have achieved top four positions.

The ban of Vettel from race and Red Bull from constructors created a variety of strategies in Japan. This was true across both categories with votes split pretty equally between Hamilton (0pts), Alonso (2pts), Raikkonen (1pt) and Webber (8pts) and Lotus (6pts), Mercedes (0pts) and Ferrari (1pt). Webber and Lotus pickers prevailed while Hamilton and Mercedes pickers hit rock-bottom with no score.

The retirement of Hamilton may have crucial ramifications on the title race. Going into the final four races, Kiszol now finds himself ideally placed to launch an attack on the top two positions. Dead Jedi also impressively won his second race in three outings, moving up to seventh place. At this stage of the championship, the stakes are raised and mistakes are amplified; Title contenders Lotus need to respond quickly, in the constructors championship, as do Kim and Kiszol before its too late.

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:


For a full guide to the 2013 season including stats and other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: F1 Prediction League 2013
I have updated the statistics so they are now complete.
Also see the driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc. There are currently offers for Jasper94, MetalGatherer, Michael and Keba. Please don't be afraid to request a team if you're interested or to make specific demands if you feel you're worth it!
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Random Category for India (Indian Improver)


Which teams will improve the most between the following sessions?
Category 1: Practice 1 and Practice 2
Category 2: Practice 2 and Practice 3
Category 3: Practice 3 and Qualifying
Category 4: Qualifying and Race
There are no restrictions on picks, so any of the eleven teams can be picked for any of the four different categories. This allows you to repeat a team for several categories, although I wouldn't recommend picking the same team every time!

The positions of both drivers will be added together e.g. 
P1 - Alonso 8th, Massa 10th = 18 points
P2 - Alonso 7th, Massa 5th = 12 points
Net improvement/(loss) for category 1 = 6 points.
The scores will be totalled across the four categories to reach an overall score.
Note 1: Any driver who retires in the race will be disqualified from category 4 and will score the picker 0 points (no improvement, no loss).
If players finish on the same amount of points, ties will be resolved by giving the place to the player with the highest score in their best category (then 2nd best score if the tie still remains etc.) If this method does not distinguish between the pickers then the player who picked first will finish ahead.
The scoring system works as follows:
Best picker: 3 points
2nd and 3rd: 2 points
4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note 2: if there is an overall tie on weekend points and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on actual random scores (i.e. the total score across all four categories).

--------------------------------------------------------------

Post your picks in the following format -
Qualifying:
Race:
Constructors:
Random:-
1:
2:
3:
4:
The deadline for India picks is Friday 25th October 05:30 GMT (before FP1). 
Good luck and may the best picker win! If anyone's worried about block picking, please email me with your picks here. Then I can post your picks during FP1 when possible. Same rules apply as usual, after you've made your picks you'll have a very small window to correct (1 hour) and then they're set in stone.

I'll always attempt to pick fairly early, given my position in the championship always good to avoid any suspicions!